Option Greeks and Stock Return Predictability
Finance Seminar by Boris Fays
April 2019, Monday 1 (5:00 pm) - BN1-1701
This paper examines the relation between the information contained in the two first Greeks of ATM options – Delta and Gamma – and the pricing of stocks. Specifically, I sort the cross-section of US stocks on a Probability Adjusted Implied Volatility Spread (PAVS), defined as the difference in the normalized Delta/Gamma ratio of a zero-delta straddle strategy. I show that a zero-cost trading strategy on this measure provides statistically significant average monthly returns. In particular, the new metric improves the spread from the put-call parity deviations of Cremers and Weinbaum (2010), as it implicitly recovers the probability distribution of stock returns contained in the option pricing model, to obtain market participants’ views about future stock prices.